SAME AS EVER BY MORGAN HOUSEL

Key Concepts and Themes

• Focus on the Unchanging: The core premise is that knowledge of the things that never change is far more useful and important than attempting to predict an inherently unknowable future.
• Predictable Human Behavior: While specific historical events are unpredictable, human reactions to stress, greed, fear, and social persuasion are remarkably consistent over time.
• Risk Is What You Don't See: The book highlights that the most impactful events are often "surprises" that no one was prepared for (e.g., COVID-19, 9/11). The best strategy is to "invest in preparedness, not in prediction".
• Expectations and Happiness: Happiness often depends more on managing your expectations than on improving your circumstances. High or constantly rising expectations are a recipe for perpetual dissatisfaction.
• The Power of Stories over Facts: People are more persuaded by compelling stories than by dry statistics or data. A good story often wins, even if it is less accurate than a complex explanation.
• Cycles of Complacency and Innovation: The book explores the cycle where success breeds complacency, leading to decline, which in turn forces innovation and growth under pressure. Great changes often occur during times of stress and necessity.
• The Value of Inefficiency/Slack: A little inefficiency or "slack" in a system (like time off for thinking or having excess savings) provides essential resilience and adaptability, which often outperforms a fragile, hyper-optimized system in the long run.
• Wounds Heal, Scars Last: Past experiences, especially traumatic ones, leave lasting "scars" that permanently shape how we view risk and the world. Understanding this fosters empathy for why others make seemingly irrational decisions.